That is what the researchers at Biowater are working to find out. Biowater is a Nordic centre of excellence in bioeconomy research that explores how the green shift will influence land use, water quality and quantity.
Eva Skarbøvik from NIBIO is project leader for Biowater, together with Jan Vermaat from NMBU. Skarbøvik says that the project has yielded important discoveries.
”We have found that if the bioeconomy does not develop in a sustainable way, the modifications of the rural landscape, in combination with expected climate change, will seriously affect our freshwater resources, and thereby society.”
In what way?
“What happens on land has consequences for the water. With warmer and wilder weather, combined with more intense farming, watercourses could be at risk of losing important qualities if no measures are taken. Will it still be possible to drink the water? Will we be able to bathe in it? Or what if the fish die, as we have seen in the Oslo Fjord? A Biowater doctoral student just looked at the value of water, and his work shows how important clean water and a healthy water environment are to us humans.”
Politically relevant research
The research seems to touch upon politically relevant issues?
“Yes, there are many discussions in the Nordic region at the intersection of renewable energy, bioeconomy, food production and the watercourse environment. For example, there is a stated goal that food production in Norway will increase in line with population developments. This must either be done by intensifying the production or by cultivating new areas. Both and will have an effect on the aquatic environment. Agriculture must have nutrients for the plants, but nutrients astray in the waterways are food for the algae, and when there is too much nutrient we get algal blooms that can be toxic. If there is also increased felling of forest with more erosion and loss of nutrients also from there, it can become very challenging for the watercourses. That is why it is extremely important to increase efforts on environmental measures.”
We love being in and by the water.
But agricultural nutrients astray in the waterways are food for the algae.
Algae in fresh water can give colour, smell and taste to the water.
When there is too much nutrient we get algal blooms that can be toxic.
Advice to stakeholders
Together with stakeholders in business, agriculture, forestry, NGOs and public administration, the researchers have mapped how the bioeconomy will develop within five different scenarios. Through workshops, group work and interviews, the researchers have asked how the five different scenarios will affect the future management of rural areas.
Five future scenarios
The five scenarios are possible main projections for the future. They are based on what is internationally known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), transferred to a set of Nordic bioeconomy pathways .
A simplified representation of the scenarios is as follows:
1. A world focused on sustainability
2. A "middle of the road" world where trends broadly follow their historical patterns
3. A fragmented world of "resurgent nationalism" and trade borders
4. A world of ever-increasing inequality between urban and rural areas
5. A world of continued growth in economic production and energy use without a focus on the environment
Among the things the stakeholders have been asked, how may the diversity of the cropping system be under the five different scenarios? Will it be more intense, with a low diversity of crops, or will it be diversified and novel, with high diversity of crops? And how will the forests be managed? Will there be fertilized monocultures with clear-felling, or will there be more focus on mixed species stands with more environmentally friendly harvesting?
How has the cooperation with the stakeholders worked?
"It's been very helpful. In all four Nordic countries that Biowater works, we have arranged national gatherings and interviews where the stakeholders and researchers have discussed how the future bioeconomy will affect land use and water quality in rural areas. The stakeholders embrace a wide range, and they therefore have different knowledge that has been absolutely necessary for us when we have been processing the scenarios into a Nordic reality.
What advice do you give to stakeholders?
“What we are doing is showing what will happen to water quality within the different scenarios. Next, we refer to which environmental measures can be implemented. The most important advice we give is probably to point out the effects of various choices that decision-makers can make. It is then up to decision-makers in the private and public sectors to decide how to follow up.”
What is your experience of working in a Nordic Center of Excellence?
“It's incredibly useful. This makes it possible to make specific comparisons between the countries. Because although the Nordic countries are quite similar, we do things differently. In Norway, for example, we are not so good at cleaning trench water in agriculture, while in Denmark a doctoral student has examined various solutions for cleaning tile drained water, often with good results. We can learn from this! Similarly with Finland, where they have good data on forest use and water quality. So the other Nordic countries are learning from Finland about how forestry can affect water quality, and what positive ecological effects it may have to keep deciduous trees along the edge of streams and rivers. These are results that have attracted interest among decision-makers in other countries.”
Do you have a “darling” in the project?
“I would say that the most enjoyable has been to learn from each other. Learn about the environmental measures of the different countries, and see how useful it is to conduct research together and exchange experiences with each other. It has also been very inspiring to have many young researchers in the project. So far, four of our PhD students have completed their doctoral degrees, and several others are on the way. Having such a network of supervisors and doctoral students across the Nordic countries is very useful, so it is something we want to keep after Biowater has ended.
Facts: Bioeconomy and Biowater
Bioeconomy is a collective term for an economy based on renewable resources, such as agriculture, forestry and hydropower.
Bioeconomy is based on the use of renewable sources of energy production (hydropower, wind power and solar energy), as well as renewable raw materials to produce the food, energy and products that we need.
Biowater is a Nordic Centre of Excellence, with the main objective of investigating the effects of the bioeconomy by looking at the relationship between land use and freshwater quality.
Biowater consists of eight Nordic partners in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, and collaborates with three research institutions in Ireland and the UK. In the core group of the centre there are about 35 researchers, but if we look at the production of articles, more than 100 different researchers and students have participated in this work.
Biowater was started in 2017 and will last until 2022. A final conference for users and stakeholders will be held on 9 June this year. The conference is held at Hurdalsjøen hotel near Oslo, as a hybrid physical/digital event.
Read more about Biowater at biowater.info.
